Safaricom Vs ndindi nyoro Vs John mbadi

[kymnjoro]

Najua jana Ndindi Nyoro na John Mbadi walikuwa na cheche za maneno Kuhusu Safaricom.

Kitu najua wengi wenyu hamkuwa mnaelewa ni nini wanaulizana. Banter after Banter.

Najua ile kitu ina-ring kwa kichwa yenyu kuna mahali pesa inataka kukuliwa.

Mnaskia tu over valuation, under valuation, Market value, intrinsic value, na book value.

Unaskia Mbadi anauliza Ndindi why he has suddenly become clever. Anasema Government made a good deal. They sold Safaricom slightly above the Market value.

Nayeye Ndindi anasema iyo kitu kuna wizi. They sold it below the intrinsic value.

Lakini in all this Wewe kama mlala hoi unastruggle kuelewa what’s happening.

Wacha niwaeleze in a language you can understand.

Assume in 2008 Mzee wako aliaamua kununu kashamba hapo Kamulu. Kashamba kalikuwa kanatoka 100k. Mzee akanunua na ako na title deed. Sasa ukitoa sales agreement inasema shamba ilinunuliwa 100k. That’s the Book Value of your mzee’s asset. Kwa hesabu yake iyo ndio pesa alitumia.

Kuna wakati kamvua kalinyesha huko Kamulu na mzee alikuwa amepeleka mtu aone shamba. After kuona imeflood jamaa buyer akasema wueeeeh hii shamba Labda itoke 80k. Na huyo jamaa hakununua. Sasa mzee akaamua Wacha aseme shamba yake ni 80k. Sasa kulingana na mzee iyo ndio Book value yake mpaka sahii.

In 2021 Serikali ikajenga barabara iyo area, kukawekwa stima na maji, watu wakajenga ma-residential kashamba kaka shoot bei mpaka kitu 2 Million ivi. Iyo ndio Market value as at 2021.

In 2025 watu wakakuja wanataka kununua shamba. Lakini sasa juu ya vile kumejengwa wizi ilikuwa juu sana. Watu wengine wakahama juu wizi na mambo ingine haieleweki. Bei ya shamba ikashuka kidogo juu watu wanataka kuhama iyo area. Juu ya panic watu wakaanza kuuza 1.5 Million. Ukitembea kijiji mzima watu wanasema huku shamba inatoka Kshs. 1.5 Million. Na ikakuwa iyo bei shamba inatoka.

Jamaa ako na connections za serikali akakuja akaambia mzee sasa hii shamba yako nataka kununua Kshs. 1.5 Million. Mzee akamwambia hapana hii kitu niongezee 100k nikupatie. Na juu niko na rentals hapa Wewe nilipe pesa ya rent ya 3 months kitu 400k Wewe mtabaki mdaiyana na tenants. Jamaa akalipa 1.64 Million.

Sasa jamaa alikuwa anamanage hiyo estate akaamka akawaambia. Wawawawa mnagongwa. Si mnakumbuka hii estate shamba ilikuwa inatoka 2 Million 2021. Ebu imagine serikali inataka kutengeneza university huku, kuna dam inataka kuchimbwa hapa so maji itakuwa kwa wingi, na ata police station inajengwa na AP camp sasa hii security itakuwa Chonjo.

Huyu former estate manager, who is now Ndindi Nyoro, anaaambia watu wa kijiji msikubali kuuza shamba yenyu 1.6 Million. Hii shamba kama izo vitu zitakam shamba itafika Kshs. 3.5 Million. So the 3.5 Million ndio intrisinc value ya shamba.

Back to Safaricom;

During the IPO in 2008, Safaricom offered shares to the public at KSh 5.00 per share.

The current Book value for Safaricom is Kshs. 4.4 per share

Safaricom this week closed at around KSh 29.45 per share.

Government is selling the shares at 34 bob per share.

Yesterday Nyoro had a press conference;

He claimed that the government is selling Safaricom at an artificially low price, estimating that the Sh34 per share offer undervalues the company by about 25 per cent.

He noted that the telecom was trading at Sh45 per share in 2021, and its expansion into Ethiopia should have increased its worth.

So he argued that Government should therefore sell the shares at 45 bob (intrinsic value) than the Kshs. 34 (market value they are selling).

Government is arguing that today Safaricom share is retailing at 29 Bob. Ukiwa na pesa yako leo that’s what you will buy Safaricom share. But Kasongo has negotiated with the buyer and they are selling at Kshs. 34 Bob per share.

It is also important to note that;

1. Book Value is the value of the company according to its financial statements (balance sheet). In this case it’s Kshs. 4.4 bob per share.

2. Market value is the current price of a share on the stock market — the price buyers and sellers agree on today. In this case it is Kshs. 29 bob per share.

3. Intrinsic value is the real, true, internal value of a company — what it should be worth — based on:
— future profits
— cash flows
— growth
— competitive advantage
— brand power
— market position

It is calculated using valuation models like DCF (discounted cash flow), earnings power, or industry multiples.

In this case Safaricom may trade at KSh 29, but if analysts calculate that based on profits, M-Pesa dominance, and future cash flows it is actually worth KSh 45-50 bob per share.

So Wewe unaona kulingana na Hii maneno who is right? Who is clever?

 

[upepo]

How do we know we got the best deal for our plot if the current caretaker negotiated exclusively with one buyer instead of inviting all interested buyers to make offers. Something else, if the shares had been sold to citizens, the profits would be circulating internally, benefiting the economy in the long term. Even if the objective were to get forex, Kenyans in the diaspora would have pitched in by buying the shares in large numbers. That way, any profits Safaricom generates would continue benefiting the economy instead of being funneled abroad.

 

[kymnjoro]

One Kipmeno aka Githinji anataka kugula directly from vodafone

 

[zapp_brannigan]

How do we know we got the best deal for our plot if the current caretaker negotiated exclusively with one buyer instead of inviting all interested buyers to make offers. Something else, if the shares had been sold to citizens, the profits would be circulating internally, benefiting the economy in the long term. Even if the objective were to get forex, Kenyans in the diaspora would have pitched in by buying the shares in large numbers. That way, any profits Safaricom generates would continue benefiting the economy instead of being funneled abroad.

Years later you will hear some money changed hands in some tax haven .