Russian President Vladimir Putin holds hands with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday in Tehran.
It’s hardly a coincidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin showed up in Iran just days after US President Joe Biden was shoring up US alliances in the Middle East.
The Russian leader's visit was a clear sign that Moscow has friends in the region too -- and is in a position to harm US interests. So should Washington be worried? The visit, which included some wholesome-looking hand-holding between Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and another visitor, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is being viewed in the US as a sign that Russia’s isolation is so acute that Putin is looking for friends.
The visit, the first by Putin outside the footprint of the former Soviet Union since the Ukraine invasion, recalls his pre-war trip to China, which sparked warnings (probably over-wrought) that the two powers could combine in an anti-US front. Speculation over whether China enjoyed being associated with Putin’s initially disastrous march into Ukraine is now coloring views of Putin’s visit to Tehran. “I think the most significant aspect about this was where he didn't go — as in Beijing,” former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on CNN. “So he has to resort to visiting another pariah state for a grip-and-grin photo-op. And I don't think a whole lot of substance.” (Putin did get a much stronger endorsement for his invasion from Raisi and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei than he has so far got from China.)
There’s also skepticism about just how long the Russia-Iran axis will last, given that they're energy and commodities competitors. Yet both sides do have one big thing in common — a desire to thwart Washington. The US has recently warned that Iran will supply drones for Russia to use in Ukraine, a potentially important battlefield development. The two powers, shut out of the global financial system, could also help one another evade sanctions.
The most tricky angle of the Iran-Russia friendship for the US could be in the stalled talks to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The Kremlin has long been seen as cool to the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapon, since it could trigger a regional arms race that might diminish the tactical advantage its own atomic arsenal brings. But it also has a driving desire to create crises for the White House. The nuclear talks offer a perfect opportunity to do so.
'Entirely too healthy'
The CIA believes that Putin is plenty healthy, agency director Bill Burns said during public remarks at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, undercutting rumors about the Russian President’s appearance and health.
Burns acknowledged that this wasn’t “a formal intelligence judgment.” But asked directly if Putin was unhealthy or unstable, he responded: “There are lots of rumors about President Putin's health and as far as we can tell, he's entirely too healthy.”
What comes next
The Supreme Court’s overturning of the constitutional right to an abortion has many Americans wondering what other rights might vanish next.
The author of the majority opinion, Judge Samuel Alito, took pains to make clear that the reasoning behind the decision applied specifically to abortion. But ultra-conservative Justice Clarence Thomas mused in a concurring opinion that contraception access and same sex marriage should be reconsidered. This is what led to the Democrat-led House of Representatives to pass a bill to protect same sex-marriage, which was legalized by the Supreme Court in 2015 before its sharp right turn.
The new measure also includes federal protections for interracial marriages. It’s hard to think that in 2022, such unions would even need protecting. But it reflects the political uproar caused by the abortion ruling and the extremism in culture war politics.
Some 47 Republicans joined Democrats in voting for the measure in the House. The big question now is whether it makes it through the Senate. Ten Republicans will need to vote with Democrats to send the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk to be signed into law. If that happens, it would be a remarkable sign of how same-sex marriage — once seen as controversial and opposed by a majority of Americans — has become an accepted part of modern life. CNN’s Capitol Hill team is reporting that both parties expect there to be sufficient support to advance the bill even if most Republicans will oppose it.
Some Republicans will vote no because their socially and religious conservative base is still not reconciled to same sex-marriage. Others may not want to go on the record as voting for a measure seen as a liberal priority. A number of Republicans have accused Democrats of wasting their time, arguing that same-sex marriage is established law. To which a cynic might add, that's what people once said about abortion.
For sure, this issue is laced with politics — Democrats are setting up a way to slam any Republican who votes no as a radical. But there is also a strong suspicion that a number of GOP senators want to avoid a vote that might set their conscience against their political well-being — a recurring dilemma in the Trump-era Republican Party.
