upepo
Elder Lister
It is too early for Ruto to assume that the byelections results point to victory in 2027. Such celebrations are premature and ill-informed. From an analytical point of view, there are many factors in the byelections which make them a poor predictor of 2027.
First, almost all the byelections were in the regime's strongholds, that is KK regime and its broad-based partners. The only exceptions were Mbeere North, Kisii and Nairobi. The regime was expected to win in North Eastern, Coast, Western, Luo Nyanza, Turkana, and Kalenjin Rift Valley. The regime's struggle in Western should worry it a lot.
Secondly, in areas where the regime had strong opposition, it engaged in massive mobilisation and intimidation. It is impossible to replicate such mobilisation in a general election. You can't have Kindiki, Kibet and CSs camping all over the country at the same time in 2027.
Thirdly, a day in politics is like a thousand years. Between now and 2027, a lot can happen. The continued economic underperformance and the risks of economic shocks could send the regime home even before 2027. This is an issue the regime ignores to its detriment. The risk of a debt-fueled economic collapse is exceedingly high, and the political ramifications are hard to downplay.
Fourthly, byelections are usually plagued by low voter turnout because they happen on a working day. Without a holiday, voters outside the voting areas are unable to travel and vote.
Fifthly, the 2027 elections will attract many of the informed middle-income voters who stayed out of the choiceless election in 2022. Up to 8 million voters boycotted the 2022 elections. These aren't numbers that can be ignored.
The final factor is that the ODM party's future and its approach to 2027 remain highly contested. It is unlikely that ODM will influence voting beyond Luo Nyanza and to a limited extent Coast. Even in those areas, the opposition can still perform fairly well if they strategise properly. The regime's only assured voting blocs are the Kalenjin, Pastoralist Upper Eastern, the North Eastern and Coast. Most of these areas have few voters, and voter turnout is usually a big challenge.
Based on these factors, it is too early to celebrate or read 2027 in these byelections. The byelections aren't comparable to the Kiambaa byelection, which happened almost a year before the 2022 general election and in an area whose political direction was overwhelmingly clear. Mbeere North is also a poor representation of the Mt Kenya Region, and any generalisation from that makes no sense.
These byelections taught us that the regime will stop at nothing to win the 2027 general elections. It will be victory by any means, whether legal or otherwise. IEBC remains institutionally weak and doesn't seem ready/capable of delivering a free and fair election. These two factors pose a great risk to the country. A regime determined to win at all costs and a helpless/incompetent IEBC are a recipe for disaster.
The opposition has a lot to learn from the outcome of the byelections. They should not underestimate their opponent. Nothing should be left to chance. They need to heed Ruto's advice to develop an issue-based narrative to sell instead of just relying on the wantam wave and emotions. You need both rational and emotional appeal in marketing.
Gachagua should also stop insulting and belittling his opponents in the Mt Kenya Region. A gather-all-scatter-none approach is better than chestthumping. If Ruto wins even 30% of the Mt Kenya vote, it can make a big difference to his re-election quest.
The KK regime should be worried that Luhyas, Kisiis, Mt Kenya and Ukambani appear set to vote as a block. Overcoming such a huge voting bloc will be a tall order.
To the rest of us, we have a warning call not to think of the outcome of the 2027 election as a foregone conclusion. The regime can buy its way back to power even when quite unpopular. It is better to protect oneself from the coming economic mess instead of betting on the Kenyan voter to deliver change. The potential for pre and post-election chaos also calls for better preparedness.
