Mwalimu-G
Elder Lister
War is Coming
Enjoy the peace while it lasts.
Ken Downs
May 9·4 min read
War is coming.
I’m not talking about a small, relatively isolated war — the ones that have been raging all your life for us twenty-somethings.
I’m talking about a big one. The Big One.
It sounds unthinkable, doesn’t it? Alarmist?That we’d have a full-scale war, like we did in the past. We’ve moved beyond that, haven't we? Grown more civilized? Wouldn’t it be foolish, profitless? The international economy, its people — we’ve never been more connected. Intertwined. Mutually interdependent.
It would be a disaster. A catastrophe like the world has never seen.
Or, so said the leading thinkers of the time. Not now. I’m talking about Europe, in 1914. Before it plunged into the abyss. Before shadows grew to cover the continent in four years of blood and misery on a scale hitherto unimaginable.
The parallels to today are eerie.
Like today, there was one country that dominated the globe. The British Empire. Britain's strength upheld the global peace between the great powers of the time, as none dared to challenge it. Yes, there was war — but no full-scale war had broken out between all of the great powers since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, all the way back in the early 19th century.
Almost one hundred years of relative peace. Trade flourished. Economies grew rapidly. Europe created a new world in its image, with its industrialized, modern armies conquering most of Africa and Asia with almost dazzling ease.
They created empires that they thought would stand for centuries. In their minds, they had built a new world, a new system, better than all those that had come before them, with their barbaric cultures and governments.
We, they thought to themselves, have finally figured it out. We have transcended human nature itself. We have slipped past the grasping bonds which held our ancestors onto their primitive stupidity.
We are more enlightened than they were. Wiser. Stronger.
They were wrong.
They mistook strength for virtue. They mistook a temporary result of British dominance over the international system as a sign of universal human progress.
But Britain was slipping.
Germany had united after centuries of disunion and weakness. Its military was growing stronger by the day. Its economy grew rapidly, until it challenged the British Empire, even surpassed it in the production of steel and advanced industrial products.
Until Germany was so strong that the British Empire no longer had the strength to keep it in line.
And then Germany demanded its place in the sun. And was increasingly resentful when, despite its growing power, Britain created alliances to maintain the global system that it had built. To deter Germany from challenging it.
Does this sound familiar? It should, if you’ve been paying attention.
And we all know what happened next.
War.
Despite the fact that Germany and the UK were each other’s largest trading partners, their economies so intertwined that each side stood to lose billions. Despite the fact that the two monarchs of each country were literally cousins, the two countries more intertwined culturally year-by-year, as the telegraph brought instant communication between the citizens of the two nations.
It would be unthinkable. Terrible. Foolhardy. It would be an act of staggering stupidity, of mutual self-destruction.
As several leading scholars said (all of them proclaiming that a world war would never happen) a war between the two powers would be completely illogical.
These scholars, so enamored with their graphs and their charts, forgot one simple thing.
When have people ever been logical?
Just look at history. War and violence are etched into every single page. I do not think it will ever leave us. Violence is as much a part of human nature as love.
And the signs are pointing in one direction.
Long ago, a Greek scholar named Thucydides wrote of the increased likelihood of war when a dominant power is challenged by one that is rising. Like two flints rubbing together, the relative movements of the power of these countries creates friction. Heat. Tension.
It’s happening right now.
Go to any news website. Be old-fashioned, and pick up a newspaper. It doesn’t matter. The evidence is everywhere.
A growing China wants what it thinks is its due. And the United States wants to protect the world which it has built.
But a war… its unthinkable, isn’t it? It would be suicidal. A catastrophe. Neither side would really win.
It’s almost impossible to imagine.
It always is, until it happens. And then it's too late.
China and the United States may be able to avert war. I don’t know. I’d be a liar or a fool if I said I know for sure which way things will go. Human behavior is inherently unpredictable when it comes to specific instances.
But in the long run, it's different. So that’s why I’m almost certain.
Eventually, our luck will run out. And there will be another large war.
So don’t take what you’ve inherited for granted. Don’t mistake the temporary for the permanent.
Enjoy the peace, while it lasts
Enjoy the peace while it lasts.
Ken Downs
May 9·4 min read
War is coming.
I’m not talking about a small, relatively isolated war — the ones that have been raging all your life for us twenty-somethings.
I’m talking about a big one. The Big One.
It sounds unthinkable, doesn’t it? Alarmist?That we’d have a full-scale war, like we did in the past. We’ve moved beyond that, haven't we? Grown more civilized? Wouldn’t it be foolish, profitless? The international economy, its people — we’ve never been more connected. Intertwined. Mutually interdependent.
It would be a disaster. A catastrophe like the world has never seen.
Or, so said the leading thinkers of the time. Not now. I’m talking about Europe, in 1914. Before it plunged into the abyss. Before shadows grew to cover the continent in four years of blood and misery on a scale hitherto unimaginable.
The parallels to today are eerie.
Like today, there was one country that dominated the globe. The British Empire. Britain's strength upheld the global peace between the great powers of the time, as none dared to challenge it. Yes, there was war — but no full-scale war had broken out between all of the great powers since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, all the way back in the early 19th century.
Almost one hundred years of relative peace. Trade flourished. Economies grew rapidly. Europe created a new world in its image, with its industrialized, modern armies conquering most of Africa and Asia with almost dazzling ease.
They created empires that they thought would stand for centuries. In their minds, they had built a new world, a new system, better than all those that had come before them, with their barbaric cultures and governments.
We, they thought to themselves, have finally figured it out. We have transcended human nature itself. We have slipped past the grasping bonds which held our ancestors onto their primitive stupidity.
We are more enlightened than they were. Wiser. Stronger.
They were wrong.
They mistook strength for virtue. They mistook a temporary result of British dominance over the international system as a sign of universal human progress.
But Britain was slipping.
Germany had united after centuries of disunion and weakness. Its military was growing stronger by the day. Its economy grew rapidly, until it challenged the British Empire, even surpassed it in the production of steel and advanced industrial products.
Until Germany was so strong that the British Empire no longer had the strength to keep it in line.
And then Germany demanded its place in the sun. And was increasingly resentful when, despite its growing power, Britain created alliances to maintain the global system that it had built. To deter Germany from challenging it.
Does this sound familiar? It should, if you’ve been paying attention.
And we all know what happened next.
War.
Despite the fact that Germany and the UK were each other’s largest trading partners, their economies so intertwined that each side stood to lose billions. Despite the fact that the two monarchs of each country were literally cousins, the two countries more intertwined culturally year-by-year, as the telegraph brought instant communication between the citizens of the two nations.
It would be unthinkable. Terrible. Foolhardy. It would be an act of staggering stupidity, of mutual self-destruction.
As several leading scholars said (all of them proclaiming that a world war would never happen) a war between the two powers would be completely illogical.
These scholars, so enamored with their graphs and their charts, forgot one simple thing.
When have people ever been logical?
Just look at history. War and violence are etched into every single page. I do not think it will ever leave us. Violence is as much a part of human nature as love.
And the signs are pointing in one direction.
Long ago, a Greek scholar named Thucydides wrote of the increased likelihood of war when a dominant power is challenged by one that is rising. Like two flints rubbing together, the relative movements of the power of these countries creates friction. Heat. Tension.
It’s happening right now.
Go to any news website. Be old-fashioned, and pick up a newspaper. It doesn’t matter. The evidence is everywhere.
A growing China wants what it thinks is its due. And the United States wants to protect the world which it has built.
But a war… its unthinkable, isn’t it? It would be suicidal. A catastrophe. Neither side would really win.
It’s almost impossible to imagine.
It always is, until it happens. And then it's too late.
China and the United States may be able to avert war. I don’t know. I’d be a liar or a fool if I said I know for sure which way things will go. Human behavior is inherently unpredictable when it comes to specific instances.
But in the long run, it's different. So that’s why I’m almost certain.
Eventually, our luck will run out. And there will be another large war.
So don’t take what you’ve inherited for granted. Don’t mistake the temporary for the permanent.
Enjoy the peace, while it lasts
