Watu huko kwa mashemeji kunaa aka aje while all eyes are in cendro huko kuna simmer.......Interesting article
Why OKA chiefs could return to drawing board in 2022 contest
Mudavadi and Kalonzo have each vowed to go all the way to the wire, suggesting that they will not step down for anybody else. For his part, Raila is upping his game everywhere in the country, while waiting for the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) leaders to ‘see the light’ and come off their high horses. With the support and endorsement he has been ratcheting across the country, what remains is getting OKA back in the stable, and he should be ready for the final showdown with Ruto. Yet, for their part, going back to Raila could be suicidal.
The common language in the street in the five Luhya counties of Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia is that if Mudavadi does not run, the votes will go to Ruto. It is the same in Ukambani.
There is a Raila fatigue in the two nations, despite spirited efforts by Cotu secretary general, Francis Atwoli and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, to shoo him up in Western and unhinged trials in Ukambani. If Mudavadi and Wetang’ula close the ranks with Raila in Western, the outcome is likely to be counterproductive for the whole team.
The crystal ball shows both apathy and voter migration towards Ruto, who already has some foothold in Bungoma and Teso. Busia, outside the Teso, however, appears to remain firmly under Raila’s command. He does not need Mudavadi or Wetang’ula to help him.
Teso, on the other hand, is under Ruto’s command. So, too, is Mt Elgon and significant swathes of Trans Nzoia. Kakamega and Bungoma are torn between Mudavadi and Ruto, with Raila’s influence exceedingly faded. Raila is unlikely to regain Shinyalu and Mumias East, the only two ODM constituencies in Kakamega. Vihiga, on the other hand, is under the command of both Mudavadi and Raila, with Mudavadi enjoying a clear edge over Raila. Both Luanda and Emuhaya constituencies, however, could complicate matters for Mudavadi, because of the dual Luo and Nyore factors.