jaba base predictions,

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

@Meria pin thread we confirm august, Assmio will win by 55% unless miracle happens
The assumption here the fringe candidates get nothing and you can reduce by 5% wasted votes. Regardless of the total voters turnout, the projection will still stands

COUNTY	County Total Votes	ASSmio%	kenya kwanza%	assmio	kenya kwanza
MOMBASA	654,063	80	20	523250.4	130,813
KWALE	320,782	80	20	256625.6	64,156
KILIFI	582,631	70	30	407841.7	174,789
TANA RIVER	137,661	60	40	82596.6	55,064
LAMU	79,157	70	30	55409.9	23,747
TAITA TAVETA	179,234	70	30	125463.8	53,770
GARISSA	207,435	60	40	124461	82,974
WAJIR	196,466	75	25	147349.5	49,117
MANDERA	211,098	80	20	168878.4	42,220
MARSABIT	164,864	70	30	115404.8	49,459
ISIOLO	86,143	70	30	60300.1	25,843
MERU	780,858	30	70	234257.4	546,601
THARAKA NITHI	234,618	25	75	58654.5	175,964
EMBU	337,627	20	80	67525.4	270,102
KITUI	532,267	80	20	425813.6	106,453
MACHAKOS	690,243	80	20	552194.4	138,049
MAKUENI	474,493	80	20	379594.4	94,899
NYANDARUA	362,357	10	90	36235.7	326,121
NYERI	492,046	10	90	49204.6	442,841
KIRINYAGA	378,580	10	90	37858	340,722
MURANG’A	628,416	20	80	125683.2	502,733
KIAMBU	1,293,309	30	70	387992.7	905,316
TURKANA	241,583	60	40	144949.8	96,633
WEST POKOT	214,574	40	60	85829.6	128,744
SAMBURU	98,081	30	70	29424.3	68,657
TRANS NZOIA	395,741	60	40	237444.6	158,296
UASIN GISHU	530,993	10	90	53099.3	477,894
ELGEYO MARAKWET	211,352	20	80	42270.4	169,082
NANDI	402,856	10	90	40285.6	362,570
BARINGO	271,977	20	80	54395.4	217,582
LAIKIPIA	265,842	50	50	132921	132,921
NAKURU	1,050,367	35	65	367628.5	682,739
NAROK	397,618	60	40	238570.8	159,047
KAJIADO	463,546	60	40	278127.6	185,418
KERICHO	429,288	10	90	42928.8	386,359
BOMET	370,399	10	90	37039.9	333,359
KAKAMEGA	841,139	90	10	757025.1	84,114
VIHIGA	304,755	90	10	274279.5	30,476
BUNGOMA	644,233	60	40	386539.8	257,693
BUSIA	406,569	90	10	365912.1	40,657
SIAYA	518,056	95	5	492153.2	25,903
KISUMU	616,871	95	5	586027.5	30,844
HOMA BAY	537,108	95	5	510252.6	26,855
MIGORI	454,954	80	20	363963.2	90,991
KISII	638,603	70	30	447022.1	191,581
NYAMIRA	316,389	70	30	221472.3	94,917
NAIROBI	2,505,190	70	30	1753633	751,557
	22,152,432			12365792	9,786,640
				55.82137	44.17862743

Cabaye CAptain1 · May 30, 2022

Da Vinci · May 30, 2022

wrongturn said:
@Meria pin thread we confirm august, Assmio will win by 55% unless miracle happens
The assumption here the fringe candidates get nothing and you can reduce by 5% wasted votes. Regardless of the total voters turnout, the projection will still stands

COUNTY County Total Votes ASSmio% kenya kwanza% assmio kenya kwanza
MOMBASA
654,063
80
20
523250.4
130,813
KWALE
320,782
80
20
256625.6
64,156
KILIFI
582,631
70
30
407841.7
174,789
TANA RIVER
137,661
60
40
82596.6
55,064
LAMU
79,157
70
30
55409.9
23,747
TAITA TAVETA
179,234
70
30
125463.8
53,770
GARISSA
207,435
60
40
124461
82,974
WAJIR
196,466
75
25
147349.5
49,117
MANDERA
211,098
80
20
168878.4
42,220
MARSABIT
164,864
70
30
115404.8
49,459
ISIOLO
86,143
70
30
60300.1
25,843
MERU
780,858
30
70
234257.4
546,601
THARAKA NITHI
234,618
25
75
58654.5
175,964
EMBU
337,627
20
80
67525.4
270,102
KITUI
532,267
80
20
425813.6
106,453
MACHAKOS
690,243
80
20
552194.4
138,049
MAKUENI
474,493
80
20
379594.4
94,899
NYANDARUA
362,357
10
90
36235.7
326,121
NYERI
492,046
10
90
49204.6
442,841
KIRINYAGA
378,580
10
90
37858
340,722
MURANG’A
628,416
20
80
125683.2
502,733
KIAMBU
1,293,309
30
70
387992.7
905,316
TURKANA
241,583
60
40
144949.8
96,633
WEST POKOT
214,574
40
60
85829.6
128,744
SAMBURU
98,081
30
70
29424.3
68,657
TRANS NZOIA
395,741
60
40
237444.6
158,296
UASIN GISHU
530,993
10
90
53099.3
477,894
ELGEYO MARAKWET
211,352
20
80
42270.4
169,082
NANDI
402,856
10
90
40285.6
362,570
BARINGO
271,977
20
80
54395.4
217,582
LAIKIPIA
265,842
50
50
132921
132,921
NAKURU
1,050,367
35
65
367628.5
682,739
NAROK
397,618
60
40
238570.8
159,047
KAJIADO
463,546
60
40
278127.6
185,418
KERICHO
429,288
10
90
42928.8
386,359
BOMET
370,399
10
90
37039.9
333,359
KAKAMEGA
841,139
90
10
757025.1
84,114
VIHIGA
304,755
90
10
274279.5
30,476
BUNGOMA
644,233
60
40
386539.8
257,693
BUSIA
406,569
90
10
365912.1
40,657
SIAYA
518,056
95
5
492153.2
25,903
KISUMU
616,871
95
5
586027.5
30,844
HOMA BAY
537,108
95
5
510252.6
26,855
MIGORI
454,954
80
20
363963.2
90,991
KISII
638,603
70
30
447022.1
191,581
NYAMIRA
316,389
70
30
221472.3
94,917
NAIROBI
2,505,190
70
30
1753633
751,557
22,152,432
12365792
9,786,640
55.82137
44.17862743

I make my prediction, too, but unlike yours, mine is not influenced by jaba. Raila's government, in the highly improbable scenario that he wins, will be the weakest government ever in the history of sub Saharan Africa. His coalition has fielded very few mp candidates and there is no telling how many of them will survive the uunda tsunami. My advice is that Raila should not spend all his money on the campaigns because he will require quite a sum to buy enough turncoats to bolster his numbers in parliament.

mzeiya · May 30, 2022

Sisi 22 paracent ndio tutaamua

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

Da Vinci said:
His coalition has fielded very few mp candidates and there is no telling how many of them will survive the uunda tsunami. My advice is that Raila should not spend all his money on the campaigns because he will require quite a sum to buy enough turncoats to bolster his numbers in parliament.

ODM will have very few mps but as a coalition , they'll have the majority, UDA will get mps only in central and rift, the rest will go to other party

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

mzeiya said:
Sisi 22 paracent ndio tutaamua
View attachment 62191

Nothing as undecided voters in kenya, hio ni slang ya upper deck folks

shocks · May 30, 2022

Mahali unaenda wrong ni on;
1. Turnout, some areas have higher turnouts than others
2. Hakuna county itapatia UDA 90% in Mt. Kenya

Factor in those two utapata hii election will go to the wire, baba atashinda na 50.0~%

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

shocks said:
Mahali unaenda wrong ni on;
1. Turnout, some areas have higher turnouts than others
2. Hakuna county itapatia UDA 90% in Mt. Kenya

Factor in those two utapata hii election will go to the wire, baba atashinda na 50.0~%

2. Hakuna county itapatia UDA 90% in Mt. Kenya-- this is one of the key assumptions 'coz I have not factored in the martha karua and uhuru effect, if we only add the effect by 5%, the difference will be huge, you'll make folks like @Denis Young shiver

Turnout will not affect the % of votes cast, margin will stand sio bure weta is vying for senate

Denis Young · May 30, 2022

wrongturn said:
2. Hakuna county itapatia UDA 90% in Mt. Kenya-- this is one of the key assumptions 'coz I have not factored in the martha karua and uhuru effect, if we only add the effect by 5%, the difference will be huge, you'll make folks like @Denis Young shiver

Turnout will not affect the % of votes cast, margin will stand sio bure weta is vying for senate

As usual, it is the idea that Raila still retains his base outside Luo Nyanza that will see Azimio lose this election.

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

Denis Young said:
As usual, it is the idea that Raila still retains his base outside Luo Nyanza that will see Azimio lose this election.

Actually if you look keenly, it is jaba hood predictions with lots of assumptions like uhuru effect.

Da Vinci · May 30, 2022

wrongturn said:
ODM will have very few mps but as a coalition , they'll have the majority, UDA will get mps only in central and rift, the rest will go to other party

Just pray that you turn out to be correct and I am wrong. But it is an obvious fact that Azimio coalition failed not only to sign adequate candidates but also strong enough individuals whose victory would have been all but assured.

Oh! And you will still have to pray even harder that your coalition remains together after the elections. Raila is well known for his poor record of keeping his team players together for long!

pop in · May 30, 2022

Denis Young said:
As usual, it is the idea that Raila still retains his base outside Luo Nyanza that will see Azimio lose this election.

If ruto splits western and coast and at least 25% in ukambani then it's game over karua is more and more looking like hot air she will not even deliver her home county

Mwalimu-G · May 30, 2022

pop in said:
If ruto splits western and coast and at least 25% in ukambani then it's game over karua is more and more looking like hot air she will not even deliver her home county

Apparently your sides propaganda (ferried crowds and photoshopped pics) meant to shore up those who are wavering is getting into your head.

Da Vinci · May 30, 2022

wrongturn said:
2. Hakuna county itapatia UDA 90% in Mt. Kenya-- this is one of the key assumptions 'coz I have not factored in the martha karua and uhuru effect, if we only add the effect by 5%, the difference will be huge, you'll make folks like @Denis Young shiver

Turnout will not affect the % of votes cast, margin will stand sio bure weta is vying for senate

You are super optimistic, Uncle! I am very afraid of excessively underating Azimio or overating Kenya Kwanza. But you seem to be very certain with your mazematics. What can I say? May Raila win with 90% nationally!

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

Da Vinci said:
You are super optimistic, Uncle! I am very afraid of excessively underating Azimio or overating Kenya Kwanza. But you seem to be very certain with your mazematics. What can I say? May Raila win with 90% nationally!

ni jaba , but don't underate uhuru effect. It's the most ignored thing .Most folks have written him off.

Da Vinci · May 30, 2022

@wrongturn, here we go! Such are Raila Odinga's soldiers in waiting.

Masked Titan · May 30, 2022

Very funny

wrongturn · May 30, 2022

Da Vinci said:
@wrongturn, here we go! Such are Raila Odinga's soldiers in waiting.

But pia Kenya we joke too much with legislature, we elect clowns every cycle then whine later. Kina jaguar, sudi, aisha should have been examples enough. Legislature is one key body that needs sober folks. We wasted 5 years, now we're scheduled another 5

Clyde007 · May 31, 2022

What is predicted is that UDA as a single party will have the highest representation in national assembly, same as about 22 governors.

Kasaman · May 31, 2022

jaba base predictions,

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